Internal polling for Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche shows that he has a big advantage over his three challengers in the Shreveport-based, R+7 open seat. How big an advantage? Well, 13 to 19 points… but the release of the poll doesn’t give specific percentages of votes or tell which margin applies to which GOP challenger. Here’s what we know:
When paired with each of these three opponents on a trial heat, Paul Carmouche defeats all three, with leads ranging from 13 to 19 points. Also, Independent candidate Chester “Catfish” Kelley holds 5% of the vote in all three match-ups.
The poll gives Carmouche very high name recognition (60%) and a 4-to-1 favorable ratio. The same poll also goes into some more detail about the Republican primary, which has three credible candidates (physician John Fleming, trucking company executive Chris Gorman, and former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson).
Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche (7/16-21, likely voters):
John Fleming (R): 27
Chris Gorman (R): 20
Jeff Thompson (R): 14
(MoE: ±4%)
Result-wise, this matches Fleming’s own polling (although Fleming gives himself a much bigger margin of victory):
Southern Media & Opinion Research for John Fleming (7/25-27, likely voters):
John Fleming (R): 43
Chris Gorman (R): 17
Jeff Thompson (R): 15
(MoE: ±5%)
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
of the Republican’s candidates in this district are so pathetic. All are complete unknowns, and there fundraising is being crushed by Carmouche. They’re going to spend what little money they raise on the primary. Carmouche is going to crush them. My uncle, who is very much a Christian Dominionist with a slight populist tendendacy, is voting for Carmouche, because he knows him as a public official while he’s never heard of any of the Republicans. Carmouche is going to win this big. It might have been clsoe if Republicans had put forth strong candidates. Their strongest candidates is Jeff Thompson. He was the one with the best campaign, the one with the best base, and he’s in last place because the other two loaned their campaigns like 300,000 dollars and outspent him. And, he was a second tier candidate himself. So, it’ll be a third tier candidate against a first tier candidate. That takes away the moderate Republican lean. Not to mention, black voters are going to make up a much larger percent of the electorate this high turnout year, (they normally amount to about 23% of electorate and could be about 29% this year).
A New York Times article about Dem registration gains mentioned that Louisiana was one of only 3 states (of the 26 they have info for) where the GOP gained voters and Dems lost them, and Louisiana is the only state where the GOP gain was more than one percentage point. And yet we’ve already picked up one LA district this year, are favored in another, and have a decent shot at a third (if Don Cravins pulls off a big upset). If this is our “worst” state, I really like our chances for big gains in November.
It wouldn’t surprise me if we had a better shot at winning LA-04 than holding LA-06.
Here was my assessment of this race a month ago:
4th – Open Seat (R) – De Ridder, Natchitoches, and Shreveport.
When prolific Republican fundraiser Jim McCrery announced his retirement the rush for potential successors had begun. Three Democrats, four Republicans, and two independents are now competing for the seat. The only Democratic candidate with decent funding is Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche. The real competition is on the Republican side (anyone who though the open seat primary in Alabama was nasty is in for a real treat here). The Republicans include Dr. John Fleming who has dumped $500K of his own funds into the race. Then there is businessman Chris Gorman who has dumped $396K of his own money into the race. Finally, there is former Bossier Chamber of Commerce President Jeff Thompson, the preferred choice of the NRCC. However, unlike his primary opponents, whom he has attacked for their self donations, he has only donated $50K of personal funds (that would be $50K more than Carmouche as well). Therefore, if he attacks his opponents for their self donations, should he make it to the general election, he too will be eligible for the same attack. While Carmouche should easily seal the nomination in September, the Republican nominee will most likely be determined in an October runoff, providing little time to raise funds or rebuild party unity. Carmouche is the perfect Democratic candidate for the district, yet Democrats here have been known to stray onto the oppossite side in the past (Governor Roemer and Foster are two former Democrats that switched to Republican). While unemployment has remained low compared to the national average, energy prices are most likely to be the decisive issue. Yet all three Republican candidates are talking social issues: illegal immigration, pro-life, family values, and who is most conservative. While this argument may work throughout the primary, the likelihood is that these issues will be less important in the general election. The bright spot for Carmouche is that Democrats compose 51% of the voters. He also has an edge in cash on hand and will be able to compete against the eventual nominee, following a bruising and nasty primary, rather easily.
Rating: Leans Democrat
(Don’t expect any of the so-called “political pundits” to make a similar assessment. They do less analyzing, which explains why they see less seats turning that expected).